Authors: Alagoz, O., Berry, D., Caswell-Jin, J., Chapman, C. H., de Koning, H., Gangnon, R. E., Hampton, J. M., Heckman-Stoddard, B., Huang, H., Huang, X., Jayasekera, J., Kerlikowske, K., Kurian, A. W., Lee, S. J., Li, Y., Lowry, K. P., Lu, Y., Mandelblatt, J. S., Miglioretti, D. L., Munoz, D. F., O'Meara, E. S., Plevritis, S. K., Quessep, E. G., Schechter, C. B., Song, J., Sprague, B. L., Stein, S., Stout, N. K., Sun, L., Tosteson, A. N. A., Trentham-Dietz, A., van Ravesteyn, N., Yang, Y.
Published: April 1, 2024
Six microsimulation models evaluated screening strategies for a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 average-risk 40-year-old female persons. Five efficient digital breast tomosynthesis screening strategies yielded median breast cancer mortality reductions of 25.4% to 41.7%, life-years gained of 120.8 to 229.7, and 6.7 to 11.5 deaths averted per 1,000 women. Biennial screening from ages 40-79 or 45-79 resulted in greater incremental gains in mortality reduction per mammogram compared to annual screening or strategies with start age 50 and cessation age 74. For Black female persons, three efficient strategies yielded mortality reductions of 31.2% to 39.6%, life-years gained of 219.4 to 309.0, and 11.7 to 15.5 deaths averted per 1,000 women. False-positive recalls ranged from 873 to 2,224 and overdiagnosed cases from 12 to 25 per 1,000 women across strategies.
